The bad news is that it’s virtually impossible to prepare for every possible incident; the good news is that virtually no one has to be.

More good news: you don’t have to come up with situations and actions on your own! There are people who are trained to do exactly that. In fact, there is an entire industry of people whose job is anticipating and preventing every possible situation. In the US, they’re known as Emergency Managers. If I had this job, I’d write “Master of Disaster” on my business cards!

Before Disaster Strikes

Go to ready.gov for more information than you’ll need. It’s easy to use and amazingly thorough. I, for one, didn’t even know that “space weather” is a thing! 

Being prepared begins with thinking ahead. Consider both the likelihood of an event and the severity. For example, people in Ohio don’t need to prepare for tsunamis. People in Virginia don’t need to be prepared for earthquakes in the same way that Californians do. And very few people in the continental U.S. need to prepare for volcanoes. (You know who you are!)

Note to Writers:  Ready.gov is a great resource! Everything a competent protagonist can do to fare well in these situations, and by implication ways a bad situation could be worse, is laid out.  The Red Cross (and the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Organization), the DC National Center for Disaster Preparedness, the CDC, and the ADA websites offer more information for specific characters and specific situation types. This Wikipedia article about Emergency Management has links to international and country-specific organizations.

Types of Disasters and Emergencies

• Attacks in public places
• Avalanche
• Bioterrorism
• Chemical emergencies
• Cybersecurity
• Drought
• Earthquakes
• Explosions
• Extreme heat
• Floods
• Hazardous materials incidents
• Home fires
• Household chemical emergencies
• Hurricanes

• Landslides and debris flow
• Nuclear explosion
• Nuclear power plant malfunctions
• Pandemic
• Power outages
• Radiological dispersion device
• Severe weather
• Space weather
• Thunderstorms and lightning
• Tornadoes
• Tsunamis
• Volcanoes

• Wildfires
• Winter weather
• Other disasters and emergencies are specific to particular countries or regions, and characters in any story would be likely to consult authorities in that region.
  • The CDC has an emergency response plan in place for a zombie invasion. They’ve run drills on this plan. The hypothetical zombies invaded Florida.

S.M.A.U.G.

Emergency Managers prioritize hazards according to the type, size, and mitigation possibility of each situation. S.M.A.U.G. stands for Seriousness, Manageability, Acceptability, Urgency, and Growth. A knife-wielding, homicidal maniac running amok at the North Pole would be a very urgent situation, but world government are likely to declare the risk to be acceptable. On the other hand, a massive dump of hazardous chemicals in the Mariana Trench is not terribly urgent, but the risk is beyond management and likely to grow exponentially in scope.

Bug-Out Bags

“It is not realistic, even in developed countries, to expect that the governmental infrastructure will be able to reach everyone within hours,” says Daniel Barnett, a disaster preparedness researcher at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.  Research by Dr. Barnett and his team in 2012 showed that less than half (sometimes less than ten percent) of the American population has actually created an emergency kit.

Many websites provide guidance for putting together your own disaster preparedness kits.  Unfortunately, this information can be confusing, and multiple websites directly contradict each other. Should you prepare for three days or three weeks? Are water purification tablets more important than tents? How are you meant to store five gallons of gasoline safely?

A problem to consider in writing is the ability of a character to create such a kit. A family that is living paycheck-to-paycheck most likely can’t afford to keep three week’s worth of food, water, and medicine sitting around. Emergency Managers have found that often the people who are most in need of assistance (collapsed housing, cut off by flooded streets, unable to evacuate) are also the people who are least likely to be able to afford preparation.

Because they are common across many emergencies and disasters, there are some things everyone needs to prepare for: lack of clean water, lack of food, lack of electricity, and lack of information or documentation. Also, consider the risks and benefits of sheltering in place or changing locations.

In getting prepared, consider the special needs of infants, children, the elderly, and people with physical or mental limitations. Characters cut off from hospitals would need to know how to deal with medications and medical devices.

But if you (or your characters) aren’t DIY types, you can always buy what you need on-line. You can get kits for singles, couples, or families; for 72 or 144 hours, four weeks, a month, and probably more options.

Of course, disaster/ emergency food only supplies, suitable for refreshing/ resupplying a kit, are available.  

Kits can and should be customized for specific situations, for example, wilderness survival. Urban differs from rural. Homes differ from workplaces. Seasonal shifts as well as geographic location are important. At the least, become knowledgeable about the risks common to where you live.

Pet Bug-Out Bags

You can also buy kits prepared specifically for cats or dogs. For less common pets, such as macaws or bearded dragons, one may be forced to DIY. The ASPCA provides information for preparing ahead to care for animals in a disaster, including farm animals, reptiles, and birds.

• Pet food (and a method of opening the container)
  • Food and water bowls
  • Several gallons of water
  • Pet treats and supplements
• Plan for waste disposal
• Grooming supplies
  • Dental tools
• Protective pet clothes
  • In general, if a human would be painfully hot or cold, any other mammal will be as well
    • Reptiles, birds, fish, etc. may need external heated or cooling apparatus
  • Paws, claws, and hoofs need protection from hazardous chemicals on the ground
• Depending on the emergency type, evacuations and shelters may forbid pets, particularly large dogs or particular dog breeds
• Horses, cows, donkeys, llamas, and other large animals may need to stay in a temporary safe space if trailers are not available

• Carriers and leashes
  • Small animals will need a sturdy travelling case to protect the inhabitant, along with replacements for whatever liners are used
• Medical records and vaccination documents
  • Pet meds for at least two weeks
  • Crowded conditions, unreliable water and food, and unfamiliar environments are likely to cause new medical concerns in pets, such as worms, mange, anxiety disorders, and a variety of infections
• Collar or harness with identifying/contact info
  • Microchip information if one is used
• Recent pictures (to identify lost pets)
• Detailed instructions on how to care for each pet (in case someone else has to care for the pet) 

Who’s Running the Circus?

Before a predicted disaster, someone has to make sure there are available helicopter landing pads, clean syringes in ambulances, sterno cans for field kitchens, and a million other minor details covered by a dozen organizations.

During a disaster, someone has to make sure the Search and Rescue teams are paired up with the Coast Guard boats, that the Red Cross medics are given transportation by drivers with appropriate vehicles, that everyone knows which evacuees should go to which shelter, and that all the aid organizations are communicating the same information.

After a disaster, someone has to direct potable water trucks to neighborhoods without reliable drinking water, ensure trauma counselors are available for everyone involved, prioritize sites for reconstruction, and all the other concerns that get lost in the fray.

Emergency Managers are trained to take care of all of these constantly evolving situations. They are familiar with fire fighting, emergency medicine, hazardous material control, containing nuclear fallout, and just about any other disaster or emergency situation that might arise. As a writer, you can use Emergency Management training materials to discover potential problems facing people (and characters) as well as possible solutions to those problems.

An Amazing Lack of Disaster

As an example of a disaster that did not happen because of the work of Emergency Managers. In 2015, Richmond VA hosted the UCI Road World Championships, an international cycling race. Obviously, there was the possibility of participants having an accident and needing medical attention, so ambulance crews were on stand-by. But that was just the beginning!

Because the Union Cycliste Internationale hosts road racing through cities, multiple streets had to be closed to traffic. This required coordination with Richmond Police to close the streets and the Fire Department and Paramedic services to ensure fire trucks and ambulances would still be able to reach local residents.

An estimated 500,000 visitors from all over the world came to Richmond for the week-long event, and they all needed food and places to sleep. Local hospitality and entertainment organizations coordinated with the Emergency Managers to be sure everyone could be accommodated without disrupting local school schedules, routine utility maintenance, trash pick up, commuters, etc. Richmond International Airport had to handle extra flights, and taxi and transportation services ferried extra people all over the city.

The race route had to have portable toilets, water stops, first aid stations, and timing checkpoints. All of these needed to be staffed by qualified people (maybe not the toilets). All of these also had to be protected from the elements and re-stocked throughout the week. Waste had to be collected and disposed of before it could pile up.

A huge crowd, elite athletes, international participants, and lots of media representatives add up to an ideal opportunity for terrorist strikes. That means extra police on duty, heightened security along the route, even FBI and CIA surveillance.

This was an event that had the possibility for all kinds of disasters: power grid overload, sanitation failures, respiratory disease spread, violent crimes or rioting in the crowded streets, inaccessible hospitals, planes colliding on runways, chemical attacks, bombs, and the list goes on. Not a single one of these disasters happened. That’s not a very exciting headline, but it demonstrates how many disasters Emergency Managers are trained to foresee and prevent.

Along with the types of preparedness plans above, familiarize yourself with the agencies and services to help you.

BOTTOM LINE: Being prepared is both a generic and a specific state.

Editor’s Note: Due to inclement weather causing disruptions in power and internet services, this blog post is somewhat sparser than usual. Though it is a perfect illustration of the subject at hand, this situation is entirely coincidental. Honestly!

When I started researching this blog, I had no intention to compare U.S. statistics with other countries. The United States was a given, because that’s where I and most of my readers are. International statistics vary greatly by country and region. China kept popping up in so many ways, I couldn’t help noticing—and passing it on.

Information about natural disasters has to be taken with a pinch (tablespoonful) of salt, for several reasons.

• During almost any natural disaster, communication is disrupted. Temperature readings, water levels, windspeeds, hospital capacities, and any other information is more difficult to gather and transmit.
  • Records might also be damaged or lost in floods, fires, etc.
• The nature of a disaster often makes accurate counts of casualties and property damage difficult to obtain.
  • Earthquakes and mudslides often bury remains for months.
  • Tsunamis and floods can wash away buildings so completely that no evidence is left for property evaluation.

• Damage caused by a natural disaster may not be noticeable until long after the event, such as a long-term illness caused by inhaling toxic materials released by property destruction.
• Multiple entities have an incentive to under- or over-estimate the damage caused by a disaster.
  • Media channels gain viewers by broadcasting more sensational news.
  • Insurance or reparation claims may be estimated higher by claimants or lower by organizations paying out.
  • Governments may deliberately try to conceal accurate accounts for security reasons, to manipulate the populace, to cover official malfeasance, or pretty much any other sinister or logical reason you can think of.

Wikipedia is a great source of data on nature’s deadly capabilities—and the data are sliced and diced in all sorts of ways.  (Remember that this data is only as accurate as the contributors to the Wikipedia pages.)

Not surprisingly, the United States and China make frequent appearances on many of the Top 10 lists. Both countries are massive, contain a wide variety of geographic hazards, and have areas of massive population density.

• Ten deadliest natural disasters ever by highest estimated death toll excluding epidemics and famines: 6 of the 10 were in China.
• Ten deadliest natural disasters since 1900 excluding epidemics and famines: 5 were in China.
• Deadliest natural disasters by year excluding epidemics and famines

Wikipedia also presented natural disasters by cause; if the U.S. isn’t named, we didn’t make the list. 

• Deadliest earthquakes: 10 of 46 in China
• Deadliest famines: 6 of 29 in China
• Deadliest impact events: of 13, 1 in the U.S.; 4 in China
• Deadliest limnic eruptions
• Deadliest wildfires/bushfires: 6 of 25 were in the United States
• Ten deadliest avalanches/landslides: 3 of 10 were in China
• Ten deadliest blizzards: 7 of 10 were in the U.S.
• Ten deadliest floods: 5 of 10 in China
• Ten deadliest heat waves: 3 of 10 were in the U.S.
• Ten deadliest pandemics / epidemics (does not include COVID-19): 4 of 10 were worldwide 
• Ten deadliest tornadoes: 2 of 10 were in the U.S.
• Ten deadliest tropical cyclones: 1 of 10 in China
• Ten deadliest tsunamis
• Ten deadliest volcanic eruptions 

Looking through these lists, it becomes apparent that of the 14 natural disasters included, the United States predominates in blizzards, while the worst natural disasters by death toll occurred in China. Part of this is no doubt because of the population differences.

If one looks at the list of countries by natural disaster risk, from lowest to highest,  the United States is ranked 45 out of 171, and is considered low risk. China is 87, and considered high risk. Qatar is #1, very low risk. At the other extreme is Vanuatu, ranked #171, extremely high risk.

N.B.: Rankings are based on data from 2012 to 2018.

Pay attention to what’s going on in Texas, especially, but also locally, to see the web of problems that can emerge. For example, several of the most common disasters in the United States cause power outages. Consider the options for tension and conflict possibilities.

• No light
• No heat/AC, depending on the season
• No way to charge mobile devices
• No way to cook, unless you have a gas stove
• No water, and no way to boil contaminated water
• Food spoiling without refrigeration
• No internet
• No TV
  • These together often limit inhabitants’ access to information
• Destruction of property
• Loss of personal possessions
• Danger to children, the elderly, pets
• Hospitals not functioning
  • Generators in hospitals are set up to handle only necessary equipment, not escalators or vending machines

Now consider a similar situation in an area where such conditions are common. In many ways, “developing countries” are better able to cope with certain natural disasters.

• Fewer communities have reliable access to electricity, water, and internet, so houses and businesses are accustomed to using wood stoves, water pumps, solar power, hand tools, etc.
• Hospitals and are often run on generators at all times, so there is no disruption if the power grid goes down.
• Food is stored in ways that do not require refrigeration or freezing.
• Children and the elderly frequently live together in multigenerational households, making caretaking much easier.

Bottom Line: Mother Nature can be a main force in people’s/characters’ lives!

Christmas Carols have always been around, right? No, not exactly.

Carols were sung in Europe thousands of years ago. The word “carol” means dance or song of praise and joy, typically in rings and circles, and they used to be common during all four seasons. Pagan carols at Winter Solstice celebrations were sung as people danced around stone circles.  The Winter Solstice is the shortest day of the year, usually falling around Dec. 22.

Carols at other seasons of the year have largely disappeared. Perhaps winter carols have survived because early Christians took over the pagan solstice celebrations for Christmas and gave people Christian songs to sing instead of pagan ones.

In AD 129, a Catholic Bishop said that a song called Angel’s Hymn should be sung at a Christmas service in Rome. Another early Christmas Hymn was written in AD 760, by Comas of Jerusalem for the Greek Orthodox Church.

In subsequent years, composers all across Europe wrote such hymns. They never became popular, some say because they were written in Latin, which common people didn’t understand.

In AD 1223, St. Francis of Assisi started Nativity Plays in Italy. The people in the plays sang canticles that told the story during the plays, normally in a language that the audience could understand and join in. The new carols spread across Europe.

In AD 1426, John Awdlay, a Shropshire chaplain, listed twenty-five “caroles of Cristemas,” the first written record in English.

During the 15th century and through the Elizabethan Era (ending 1603), these carols were fictional stories loosely based on the Nativity described in the Gospels and intended as entertainment rather than worship. They were sung in homes or pubs, not churches.

Traveling minstrels freely changed the words to suit the local people wherever they were. For example, I Saw Three Ships might first have represented ships taking the skulls of the three wise men to the Cologne Cathedral, but over time and venues, the travelers on the three ships were sung to be many different Biblical characters.

When Oliver Cromwell and the Puritans came to power in England in 1647, the singing of carols was banned. Carols survived because people sang them in private.

During the Victorian period, many new carols were written including Good King Wenceslas. Hark! The Herald Angels Sing (originally Hark! How All the Welkin Rings), The First Noel, and God Rest You Merry, Gentlemen were popularized.  The custom of singing carols in the streets became popular and remains so today.

• Martin Luther authored carols and encouraged their use in worship.

• Adeste Fideles had attained its modern form in the mid-18th century, although the words might date to the 13th century.

• God Rest Ye Merry, Gentlemen, The First Noel, I Saw Three Ships, and Hark! The Herald Angels Sing appear in a collection assembled by William Sandys in 1833.

• It Came Upon a Midnight Clear also dates from this period.

• In 1865, Christmas-related lyrics were sung to the melodies of traditional English folk songs, such as Greensleeves—think What Child is This.

• Good King Wenceslas and The Holly and the Ivy can be traced directly back to the middle ages, and are among the oldest musical compositions still sung regularly.

In older times, caroling children asked for (and were given) edible gifts such as dried fruit, eggs, nuts or sweets. By the 20th century, the edible gifts had been replaced by money. Caroling is also done by choirs, marching bands, groups trying to raise money for trips, projects, or charity, folk societies, neighbors, and well-wishers.

Now caroling often includes secular as well as religious music. Such songs written in the United States range from Jingle Bells and Frosty the Snowman to O Little Town of Bethlehem to Away in a Manger.  So gather round the old piano and celebrate the season with songs of your choice!

I often start with a definition, so my readers and I are on the same page. In this instance, a collection is related things acquired on purpose. Collecting is not a new activity. Evidence of collections date back to 500-400 BCE. Mesopotamia?

Some claim that everyone collects something, be it athletic trophies, family photographs, antique farm implements, theater programs, or anything else that catches the collector’s fancy. Some claim that a true collection has no essential or practical use.

Which begs the question, what about a cookbook collection? In my opinion, a collection is like pornography: you know it when you see it.

In better knowing your character, there are two relevant aspects of collections: what is collected and why it is collected. These are often intertwined.

Investment

Investment often means collecting things that a museum might be interested in. The bottom line is that the thing collected has been shown over the years, potentially, to provide some degree of financial return to the collector. 

• Art
• Ancient artifacts
• Coins
• Stamps
• Gems

Set Completion

A complete set of something finite, e.g., all 13 editions of the Fannie Farmer Cookbooks, would be worth more than the individual items, but financial reasons are often irrelevant. There is satisfaction in simply having all of them.  As a collecting motive, set completion may well be related to OCD tendencies.

Note: Most set completions do not preclude others completing the same set.

• Putting together full service for eight or twelve in Colonial Knife and Fork depression glass
• Getting signatures of all of the U.S. Presidents

No Potential for Financial Gain 

How does one rationally explain the collecting of matchbook covers, Cracker Jacks toys, belt buckles, salt cellars, shot glasses, door knobs, etc.? 

• Creating and Projecting an Image
  • For example, a woman collecting Black Sabbath concert shirts gives very different vibes than one collecting fancy china cups and saucers.

• Enhancing Social Status
  • This motive varies by reference group. What might be the reference for someone who collects copper food molds—or someone who collects first editions?

• Conspicuous Consumption
  • The only requirement is that the collectible be expensive AND others know it. 

• Stave Off Boredom
  • The collection allows the collector to spend time learning about the item, acquiring it, and caring for it.
  • I met a man who has over 500 sets of salt and pepper shakers, knows where and how he got each, and built hardwood display cases to house them.

• Continue a Family Tradition
  • I know one man whose mother collected elephants and mushrooms (various sizes, materials, styles). He inherited her collections and continued from there.

• Childhood Connection
  • As a tangible connection to one’s childhood pleasures—such as Barbie dolls or Tonka trucks

• Compensating for Childhood Deprivation
  • To feel secure in having “plenty”—especially among people who grew up deprived of something.
  • A person who grew up in poverty might collect one thing after another as a financially secure adult : antique cars, napkin rings, mah jong sets, maps, buttons, marbles, artificial Christmas trees.

.

.

.

.

• Other Ego Defense or Coping Mechanism
  • For example, William D. McIntosh & Brandon Schmeichel suggest that collectors are drawn to collecting as a means of bolstering the self by setting up goals that are tangible and attainable and provide the collector with concrete feedback of progress.  

Questions for Writers

• What surrounds your character? Are those things random or chosen?
• What does your character collect?
• What does collecting do for your character?